MAPPED: Could these regions be SA’s next COVID-19 hot-spots?

The tech-whizzes at Wits University have come up with a clever tool that maps developing virus hot-spots in Gauteng. The dashboard calculates a ‘risk index’ based on new cluster outbreaks in the province – and it has the power to help the regional health department plan for any potential crisis sparked by the second wave of COVID-19.

How ‘at risk’ is each ward?

According to the boffins behind the map, the speed of cluster growth is the main factor in determining what constitutes a ‘hot-spot‘. Anything above 20 on the scale is considered high-risk, as the AI calculates a corresponding value:

“The map shows hotspots in the Gauteng province. Hotspots are clusters of positive cases. Clusters are obtained using Artificial Intelligence through methodologies derived from unsupervised Machine Learning.”

“Each cluster has a risk index assigned to it. The risk index takes into account a number of factors that include how fast the cluster is growing. When the risk index is above 20, the cluster is considered to be high-risk. The map only displays active clusters.”

Wits University statement

Where are the developing COVID-19 hot-spots in Gauteng?

The data is broken down on a ward-by-ward basis. Jukskei Park, Bloubosrand, Fourways, and Witkoppen have been identified as the most ‘at risk hot-spot’ in the whole of Gauteng. Although 76 active cases doesn’t sound like much, the acceleration in new infections – coupled with population density – has put this region on red alert.

Protea Glen has the second highest risk value, followed by Bryanston and Sterkfontein. Fourways and Sekampaneng are also considered as ‘dots on the radar’. Over 70 locations have been placed in the ‘at risk’ – you can view the top 10 here:

Ward Type Total cases Risk Index
Jukskei Park/Bloubosrand/Fourways/Witkoppen Developing hotspot 76 51
Protea Glen/Doornkop AH/Stesa AH Hotspot 64 49
President Ridge/Ferndale/Blairgowrie/Hurlingham/Bryanston Developing hotspot 55 43
Munsieville SP/Sterkfontein Developing hotspot 70 42
Dilopye SP/Suurman SP/Sekampaneng/Temba Unit 1 Hotspot 17 36
Fourways/Sunninghill/Paulshof/Lone Hill Developing hotspot 71 36
Mogale City NU/Rietpoort AH Developing hotspot 57 36
Jupiter/Wychwood/Primrose/Fishers Hill/Solheim/Primrose Hill Developing hotspot 54 34
Douglasdale/Woodmead/Edenburg/Bryanston Developing hotspot 53 33
President Ridge/Ferndale/Blairgowrie/Hurlingham/Bryanston Developing hotspot 54 33
11a5664f covid 19 hot spots gauteng map - MAPPED: Could these regions be SA’s next COVID-19 hot-spots?
Photo: Wits University / Gauteng Health Department

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